Data center, healthcare, and infrastructure lead growth. But contractors with packed backlogs may be missing signals of cooling demand in adjacent sectors.
In Short
- Data center, healthcare, and infrastructure lead growth. But contractors with packed backlogs may be missing signals of cooling demand in adjacent sectors.
Not all growth is created equal. This year's fastest-growing commercial-construction sectors — data center, healthcare, and public infrastructure — are running 18-24% above 2024 baselines. But underneath the aggregate number, three important patterns are hiding.
The three sectors leading growth
- Data-center campuses (+34% YoY by starts, +51% by dollar value)
- Healthcare — specifically outpatient specialty facilities (+22%)
- Public infrastructure funded through the IIJA drawdown (+18%)
Sectors quietly cooling
Multifamily starts are down 14% YoY, retail is flat with negative regional variance in the South, and Class-A office is still in a multi-year contraction. Contractors with backlog concentrated in these three sectors — even healthy backlog — should be recalibrating their bid pipeline now, not in Q1.
FAQ: Commercial Construction Data
Quick answers to what readers of this article most often ask.
- Sort your active backlog by expected substantial-completion date. If more than 35% of backlog value is in a single sector, and that sector is not one of the three fastest-growers listed above, you should be actively pursuing diversification in your bid pipeline right now.